Africa's Development Dynamics (AfDD) Table 38 - Projected education profiles — Population with less than primary education (medium scenario) by country
The Statistical Annex to the annual Africa's Development Dynamics (AFDD) report is a collection of development indicators that were gathered and analysed while conducting the research that went into the report. These data are also available online for free viewing or download at https://oe.cd/AFDD-2024, a bilingual...
Countries reporting
165
Highest
62.31 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
Mali
Lowest
0 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
Tonga
Median
6.68 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
Years covered
41
2000–2040
Data points
7,228
What the numbers show
Africa's Development Dynamics (AfDD) Table 38 - Projected education profiles — Population with less than primary education (medium scenario) is currently reported for 165 countries. The highest value is 62.31 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over in Mali; the lowest is 0 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over in Tonga.
The median across all reporting countries is 6.68 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over, and the mean is 12.45 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over.
Over the past decade 25 countries rose and 139 fell. The largest increase was in Iceland (up 56.7%), and the largest decrease in Korea, Democratic People's Republic of (down 53.3%).
Africa's Development Dynamics (AfDD) Table 38 - Projected education: full country ranking
| # | Country | Latest | Year | 10-year change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mali | 62.31 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 10.4% | falling |
| 2 | Niger | 61.26 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 11.9% | falling |
| 3 | Burkina Faso | 50.55 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 15.5% | falling |
| 4 | Yemen, Republic of | 49.47 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 16.1% | falling |
| 5 | Mozambique, Republic of | 45.56 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 17.3% | falling |
| 6 | Chad | 44.81 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 19.4% | falling |
| 7 | Benin | 43.68 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 12.4% | falling |
| 8 | Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of | 43.49 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 15.7% | falling |
| 9 | South Sudan, Republic of | 43.16 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 17.6% | falling |
| 10 | Guinea | 42.51 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 16.6% | falling |
| 11 | Somalia | 42.31 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 19.3% | falling |
| 12 | Rwanda | 41.97 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 18.1% | falling |
| 13 | Djibouti | 40.78 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 18.8% | falling |
| 14 | Sierra Leone | 39.35 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 17.9% | falling |
| 15 | Eritrea, The State of | 39.1 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 19.1% | falling |
| 16 | Bhutan | 38.98 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 17.0% | falling |
| 17 | Angola | 36.57 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 18.1% | falling |
| 18 | Senegal | 35.12 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 18.9% | falling |
| 19 | Guinea-Bissau | 35.12 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 21.1% | falling |
| 20 | Côte d’Ivoire | 33.62 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 19.8% | falling |
| 21 | Gambia, The | 32.69 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 20.1% | falling |
| 22 | Burundi | 31.93 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 22.7% | falling |
| 23 | Togo | 30.91 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 18.5% | falling |
| 24 | Liberia | 29.28 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 21.5% | falling |
| 25 | Pakistan | 28.26 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 22.4% | falling |
| 26 | Africa, fragile states | 27.73 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 19.9% | falling |
| 27 | Haiti | 26.71 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 23.0% | falling |
| 28 | Bangladesh | 25.65 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 18.9% | falling |
| 29 | Guatemala | 25.15 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 19.7% | falling |
| 30 | Sudan | 24.55 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 29.9% | falling |
| 31 | Honduras | 24.55 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 19.5% | falling |
| 32 | Malawi | 22.82 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 25.4% | falling |
| 33 | Nicaragua | 22.82 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 19.0% | falling |
| 34 | Morocco | 22.39 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 25.6% | falling |
| 35 | Uganda | 22.19 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 25.8% | falling |
| 36 | Myanmar | 21.03 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 20.9% | falling |
| 37 | Nepal | 20.23 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 26.4% | falling |
| 38 | Cambodia | 19.92 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 26.7% | falling |
| 39 | São Tomé and Príncipe, Democratic Republic of | 19.53 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 27.8% | falling |
| 40 | Kuwait | 19.16 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 16.8% | falling |
| 41 | India | 18.87 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 24.0% | falling |
| 42 | El Salvador | 17.25 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 23.0% | falling |
| 43 | Nigeria | 16.94 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 28.5% | falling |
| 44 | Lao People's Democratic Republic | 16.76 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 26.4% | falling |
| 45 | Ghana | 16.4 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 24.9% | falling |
| 46 | East African Community | 16.38 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 27.1% | falling |
| 47 | Qatar | 16.29 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 14.9% | falling |
| 48 | Comoros, Union of the | 15.97 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 30.7% | falling |
| 49 | Central African Republic | 15.32 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 33.7% | falling |
| 50 | Zambia | 14.32 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 28.1% | falling |
| 51 | Vanuatu | 14.3 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 26.6% | falling |
| 52 | Arab Maghreb Union (UMA) | 13.98 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 28.1% | falling |
| 53 | Bahrain, Kingdom of | 13.61 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 20.2% | falling |
| 54 | Oman | 13.41 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 23.8% | falling |
| 55 | Libya | 13.16 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 27.0% | falling |
| 56 | Iraq | 13.05 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 27.5% | falling |
| 57 | Maldives | 12.68 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 24.9% | falling |
| 58 | Mauritius | 12.67 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 23.5% | falling |
| 59 | Papua New Guinea | 12.51 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 29.9% | falling |
| 60 | Portugal | 12.28 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 35.4% | falling |
| 61 | Solomon Islands | 12.22 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 29.1% | falling |
| 62 | Dominican Republic | 12.1 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 28.3% | falling |
| 63 | Resource-rich countries | 12.06 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 14.2% | falling |
| 64 | Belize | 12.01 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 20.0% | falling |
| 65 | United Arab Emirates | 11.67 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 15.2% | falling |
| 66 | Egypt, Arab Republic of | 10.68 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 35.2% | falling |
| 67 | Namibia | 10.13 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 34.6% | falling |
| 68 | Brazil | 9.82 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 26.5% | falling |
| 69 | World outside Africa | 9.67 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 21.4% | falling |
| 70 | Cameroon | 9.34 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 32.7% | falling |
| 71 | Colombia | 9.27 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 26.9% | falling |
| 72 | Jordan | 9.19 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 22.1% | falling |
| 73 | Paraguay | 9.13 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 28.4% | falling |
| 74 | Ecuador | 8.71 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 27.8% | falling |
| 75 | Tanzania, United Republic of | 8.47 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 34.2% | falling |
| 76 | Kenya | 7.68 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 33.5% | falling |
| 77 | Costa Rica | 7.63 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 22.7% | falling |
| 78 | Iran, Islamic Republic of | 7.23 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 30.8% | falling |
| 79 | Tunisia | 7.04 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 36.2% | falling |
| 80 | Kiribati | 7.02 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 31.1% | falling |
| 81 | Mexico | 6.75 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 30.7% | falling |
| 82 | Gabon | 6.73 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 32.0% | falling |
| 83 | Sri Lanka | 6.68 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 30.4% | falling |
| 84 | Algeria | 6.58 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 36.7% | falling |
| 85 | Peru | 6.32 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 31.9% | falling |
| 86 | Saudi Arabia | 6.25 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 30.4% | falling |
| 87 | Bolivia | 6.23 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 35.4% | falling |
| 88 | Brunei Darussalam | 5.78 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 23.0% | falling |
| 89 | Congo, Republic of | 5.53 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 36.1% | falling |
| 90 | Panama | 5.37 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 27.7% | falling |
| 91 | Singapore | 5.03 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 28.6% | falling |
| 92 | Venezuela, República Bolivariana de | 4.85 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 28.8% | falling |
| 93 | Argentina | 4.71 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 29.4% | falling |
| 94 | South Africa | 4.47 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 39.5% | falling |
| 95 | Botswana | 4.28 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 43.1% | falling |
| 96 | Seychelles | 4.11 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 34.2% | falling |
| 97 | North Macedonia, Republic of | 3.99 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 35.0% | falling |
| 98 | Malaysia | 3.68 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 33.6% | falling |
| 99 | China (People’s Republic of) | 3.63 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 33.9% | falling |
| 100 | Lebanon | 3.56 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 27.0% | falling |
| 101 | Chile | 3.49 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 32.1% | falling |
| 102 | Thailand | 3.48 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 14.8% | falling |
| 103 | Philippines | 3.45 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 35.2% | falling |
| 104 | Indonesia | 3.45 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 39.5% | falling |
| 105 | Zimbabwe | 3.15 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 38.7% | falling |
| 106 | Israel | 2.88 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 20.3% | falling |
| 107 | Spain | 2.66 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 34.1% | falling |
| 108 | Barbados | 2.6 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 28.3% | falling |
| 109 | Switzerland | 2.52 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 6.5% | rising |
| 110 | Suriname | 2.47 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 28.0% | falling |
| 111 | Antigua and Barbuda | 2.46 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 22.2% | falling |
| 112 | Uruguay | 2.43 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 38.5% | falling |
| 113 | OECD | 2.41 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 20.2% | falling |
| 114 | Luxembourg | 2.22 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 29.0% | volatile |
| 115 | Trinidad and Tobago | 2.14 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 37.3% | falling |
| 116 | New Zealand | 2.11 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 4.1% | rising |
| 117 | Greece | 2.09 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 19.1% | falling |
| 118 | St. Lucia | 2.04 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 30.0% | falling |
| 119 | Bahamas, The | 1.97 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 22.2% | falling |
| 120 | Australia | 1.75 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 14.7% | rising |
| 121 | Canada | 1.75 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 6.1% | falling |
| 122 | Grenada | 1.71 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 30.0% | falling |
| 123 | United States | 1.7 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 6.4% | falling |
| 124 | Cuba | 1.59 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 38.8% | falling |
| 125 | Guyana | 1.56 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 32.4% | falling |
| 126 | France | 1.54 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 1.8% | falling |
| 127 | Cyprus | 1.5 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 8.4% | volatile |
| 128 | Bulgaria | 1.48 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 8.7% | falling |
| 129 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1.45 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 48.4% | falling |
| 130 | Albania | 1.42 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 17.4% | falling |
| 131 | Austria | 1.41 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 39.0% | volatile |
| 132 | Italy | 1.4 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 21.0% | falling |
| 133 | Belgium | 1.35 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 15.9% | falling |
| 134 | Ireland | 1.25 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 16.8% | rising |
| 135 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 1.23 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 30.8% | volatile |
| 136 | Jamaica | 1.2 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 45.6% | falling |
| 137 | Mongolia | 1.19 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 30.1% | falling |
| 138 | Montenegro | 1.18 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 3.6% | falling |
| 139 | Germany | 1.08 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 42.8% | volatile |
| 140 | Georgia | 1.02 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 13.2% | falling |
| 141 | Sweden | 1.01 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 35.8% | volatile |
| 142 | Armenia, Republic of | 0.9865 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 25.0% | falling |
| 143 | Romania | 0.9775 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 10.9% | falling |
| 144 | Kazakhstan, Republic of | 0.9681 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 3.0% | falling |
| 145 | Norway | 0.945 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 19.5% | rising |
| 146 | United Kingdom | 0.9357 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 36.4% | volatile |
| 147 | Belarus, Republic of | 0.9092 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 22.6% | falling |
| 148 | Serbia, Republic of | 0.8382 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 26.9% | volatile |
| 149 | Russia | 0.8378 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 18.9% | rising |
| 150 | Hungary | 0.7851 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 13.3% | rising |
| 151 | Ukraine | 0.7668 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 23.9% | volatile |
| 152 | Czechia | 0.7385 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 12.2% | rising |
| 153 | Denmark | 0.7128 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 27.7% | volatile |
| 154 | Iceland | 0.6345 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 56.7% | volatile |
| 155 | Malta | 0.5806 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 25.1% | volatile |
| 156 | Kyrgyz Republic | 0.4887 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 3.9% | volatile |
| 157 | Finland | 0.455 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 43.0% | volatile |
| 158 | Azerbaijan, Republic of | 0.3271 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 7.8% | volatile |
| 159 | Uzbekistan, Republic of | 0.3082 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 14.5% | falling |
| 160 | Turkmenistan | 0.2778 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 9.4% | volatile |
| 161 | Japan | 0.2181 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | up 24.8% | rising |
| 162 | Samoa | 0.2034 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 51.3% | volatile |
| 163 | Tajikistan, Republic of | 0.1833 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 19.1% | volatile |
| 164 | Korea, Democratic People's Republic of | 0.0242 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | down 53.3% | volatile |
| 165 | Tonga | 0 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over | 2040 | — | volatile |
Regions and income groups
Aggregates are excluded from the country ranking above so that a region can never outrank a country.
- Ethiopia 47.34 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
- Mauritania 36.02 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
- Madagascar 35.16 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
- Least Developed Countries 31.46 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
- Lesotho 14.62 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
- Equatorial Guinea 6.27 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
- Eswatini 5.53 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
- Latvia 1.92 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
- Netherlands 1.58 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
- Estonia 1.55 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
- Croatia 1.39 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
- Slovenia 1.12 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
About this data
The Statistical Annex to the annual Africa's Development Dynamics (AFDD) report is a collection of development indicators that were gathered and analysed while conducting the research that went into the report. These data are also available online for free viewing or download at https://oe.cd/AFDD-2024, a bilingual website which links to the electronic version of the Africa's Development Dynamics book in both English and French. <br><br> Table 38 shows the projected population in 2040 with different education levels, according to the medium and accelerated scenario as calculated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital in 2018.