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Africa's Development Dynamics (AfDD) Table 38 - Projected education profiles — Population with less than primary education (medium scenario) by country

The Statistical Annex to the annual Africa's Development Dynamics (AFDD) report is a collection of development indicators that were gathered and analysed while conducting the research that went into the report. These data are also available online for free viewing or download at https://oe.cd/AFDD-2024, a bilingual...

Countries reporting
182
Highest
62.31 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
Mali
Lowest
0 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
Tonga
Median
6.24 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
Years covered
41
2000–2040
Data points
7,228

What the numbers show

Africa's Development Dynamics (AfDD) Table 38 - Projected education profiles — Population with less than primary education (medium scenario) is currently reported for 182 countries. The highest value is 62.31 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over in Mali; the lowest is 0 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over in Tonga.

The median across all reporting countries is 6.24 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over, and the mean is 12.2 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over.

Over the past decade 33 countries rose and 148 fell. The largest increase was in Iceland (up 56.7%), and the largest decrease in North Korea (down 53.3%).

Africa's Development Dynamics (AfDD) Table 38 - Projected education: full country ranking

#Country LatestYear 10-year changeTrend
1 Mali 62.31 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 10.4% falling
1 Ethiopia 47.34 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 16.1% falling
2 Niger 61.26 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 11.9% falling
2 Mauritania 36.02 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 18.4% falling
3 Burkina Faso 50.55 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 15.5% falling
3 Madagascar 35.16 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 18.4% falling
4 Yemen 49.47 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 16.1% falling
5 Mozambique 45.56 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 17.3% falling
6 Chad 44.81 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 19.4% falling
7 Benin 43.68 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 12.4% falling
7 Cabo Verde 28.21 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 16.9% falling
8 Afghanistan 43.49 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 15.7% falling
9 South Sudan 43.16 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 17.6% falling
10 Guinea 42.51 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 16.6% falling
11 Somalia 42.31 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 19.3% falling
12 Rwanda 41.97 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 18.1% falling
13 Djibouti 40.78 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 18.8% falling
14 Sierra Leone 39.35 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 17.9% falling
14 Lesotho 14.62 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 32.0% falling
15 Eritrea 39.1 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 19.1% falling
16 Bhutan 38.98 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 17.0% falling
17 Angola 36.57 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 18.1% falling
18 Senegal 35.12 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 18.9% falling
18 Syrian Arab Republic 20.21 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 22.5% falling
19 Guinea-Bissau 35.12 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 21.1% falling
20 Côte d’Ivoire 33.62 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 19.8% falling
21 Gambia 32.69 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 20.1% falling
21 Equatorial Guinea 6.27 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 34.1% falling
22 Burundi 31.93 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 22.7% falling
22 Eswatini 5.53 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 39.6% falling
23 Togo 30.91 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 18.5% falling
23 Croatia 1.39 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 6.4% falling
24 Liberia 29.28 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 21.5% falling
24 Democratic Republic of the Congo 14.04 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 31.6% falling
24 Fiji 1.08 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 41.4% falling
25 Pakistan 28.26 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 22.4% falling
25 Timor-Leste 13.62 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 38.3% falling
25 Moldova 0.8294 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 1.4% volatile
26 Haiti 26.71 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 23.0% falling
27 Bangladesh 25.65 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 18.9% falling
28 Guatemala 25.15 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 19.7% falling
29 Sudan 24.55 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 29.9% falling
30 Honduras 24.55 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 19.5% falling
31 Malawi 22.82 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 25.4% falling
32 Nicaragua 22.82 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 19.0% falling
32 Viet Nam 9.28 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 23.6% falling
33 Morocco 22.39 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 25.6% falling
34 Uganda 22.19 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 25.8% falling
35 Myanmar 21.03 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 20.9% falling
36 Nepal 20.23 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 26.4% falling
37 Cambodia 19.92 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 26.7% falling
38 Sao Tome and Principe 19.53 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 27.8% falling
38 Türkiye 3.11 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 34.9% falling
39 Kuwait 19.16 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 16.8% falling
39 Micronesia 2.22 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 38.5% falling
40 India 18.87 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 24.0% falling
41 El Salvador 17.25 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 23.0% falling
42 Nigeria 16.94 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 28.5% falling
42 Latvia 1.92 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 30.9% rising
43 Laos 16.76 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 26.4% falling
43 Netherlands 1.58 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 1.1% falling
44 Ghana 16.4 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 24.9% falling
45 Qatar 16.29 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 14.9% falling
45 Estonia 1.55 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 33.8% volatile
46 Comoros 15.97 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 30.7% falling
46 Slovenia 1.12 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 26.7% rising
47 Central African Republic 15.32 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 33.7% falling
47 Lithuania 1.04 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 11.0% falling
48 Zambia 14.32 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 28.1% falling
48 Poland 0.1358 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 42.9% volatile
49 Vanuatu 14.3 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 26.6% falling
50 Bahrain 13.61 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 20.2% falling
51 Oman 13.41 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 23.8% falling
52 Libya 13.16 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 27.0% falling
53 Iraq 13.05 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 27.5% falling
54 Maldives 12.68 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 24.9% falling
55 Mauritius 12.67 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 23.5% falling
56 Papua New Guinea 12.51 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 29.9% falling
57 Portugal 12.28 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 35.4% falling
58 Solomon Islands 12.22 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 29.1% falling
59 Dominican Republic 12.1 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 28.3% falling
60 Belize 12.01 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 20.0% falling
61 United Arab Emirates 11.67 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 15.2% falling
62 Egypt 10.68 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 35.2% falling
63 Namibia 10.13 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 34.6% falling
64 Brazil 9.82 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 26.5% falling
65 Cameroon 9.34 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 32.7% falling
66 Colombia 9.27 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 26.9% falling
67 Jordan 9.19 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 22.1% falling
68 Paraguay 9.13 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 28.4% falling
69 Ecuador 8.71 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 27.8% falling
70 Tanzania 8.47 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 34.2% falling
71 Kenya 7.68 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 33.5% falling
72 Costa Rica 7.63 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 22.7% falling
73 Iran 7.23 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 30.8% falling
74 Tunisia 7.04 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 36.2% falling
75 Kiribati 7.02 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 31.1% falling
76 Mexico 6.75 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 30.7% falling
77 Gabon 6.73 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 32.0% falling
78 Sri Lanka 6.68 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 30.4% falling
79 Algeria 6.58 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 36.7% falling
80 Peru 6.32 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 31.9% falling
81 Saudi Arabia 6.25 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 30.4% falling
82 Bolivia 6.23 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 35.4% falling
83 Brunei Darussalam 5.78 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 23.0% falling
84 Congo 5.53 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 36.1% falling
85 Panama 5.37 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 27.7% falling
86 Singapore 5.03 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 28.6% falling
87 Venezuela 4.85 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 28.8% falling
88 Argentina 4.71 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 29.4% falling
89 South Africa 4.47 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 39.5% falling
90 Botswana 4.28 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 43.1% falling
91 Seychelles 4.11 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 34.2% falling
92 North Macedonia 3.99 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 35.0% falling
93 Malaysia 3.68 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 33.6% falling
94 China 3.63 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 33.9% falling
95 Lebanon 3.56 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 27.0% falling
96 Chile 3.49 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 32.1% falling
97 Thailand 3.48 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 14.8% falling
98 Philippines 3.45 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 35.2% falling
99 Indonesia 3.45 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 39.5% falling
100 Zimbabwe 3.15 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 38.7% falling
101 Israel 2.88 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 20.3% falling
102 Spain 2.66 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 34.1% falling
103 Barbados 2.6 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 28.3% falling
104 Switzerland 2.52 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 6.5% rising
105 Suriname 2.47 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 28.0% falling
106 Antigua and Barbuda 2.46 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 22.2% falling
107 Uruguay 2.43 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 38.5% falling
108 OECD 2.41 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 20.2% falling
109 Luxembourg 2.22 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 29.0% volatile
110 Trinidad and Tobago 2.14 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 37.3% falling
111 New Zealand 2.11 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 4.1% rising
112 Greece 2.09 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 19.1% falling
113 Saint Lucia 2.04 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 30.0% falling
114 Bahamas 1.97 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 22.2% falling
115 Australia 1.75 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 14.7% rising
116 Canada 1.75 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 6.1% falling
117 Grenada 1.71 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 30.0% falling
118 United States 1.7 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 6.4% falling
119 Cuba 1.59 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 38.8% falling
120 Guyana 1.56 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 32.4% falling
121 France 1.54 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 1.8% falling
122 Cyprus 1.5 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 8.4% volatile
123 Bulgaria 1.48 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 8.7% falling
124 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.45 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 48.4% falling
125 Albania 1.42 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 17.4% falling
126 Austria 1.41 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 39.0% volatile
127 Italy 1.4 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 21.0% falling
128 Belgium 1.35 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 15.9% falling
129 Ireland 1.25 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 16.8% rising
130 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1.23 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 30.8% volatile
131 Jamaica 1.2 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 45.6% falling
132 Mongolia 1.19 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 30.1% falling
133 Montenegro 1.18 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 3.6% falling
134 Germany 1.08 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 42.8% volatile
135 Georgia 1.02 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 13.2% falling
136 Sweden 1.01 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 35.8% volatile
137 Armenia 0.9865 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 25.0% falling
138 Romania 0.9775 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 10.9% falling
139 Kazakhstan 0.9681 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 3.0% falling
140 Norway 0.945 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 19.5% rising
141 United Kingdom 0.9357 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 36.4% volatile
142 Belarus 0.9092 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 22.6% falling
143 Serbia 0.8382 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 26.9% volatile
144 Russia 0.8378 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 18.9% rising
145 Hungary 0.7851 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 13.3% rising
146 Ukraine 0.7668 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 23.9% volatile
147 Czechia 0.7385 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 12.2% rising
148 Denmark 0.7128 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 27.7% volatile
149 Iceland 0.6345 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 56.7% volatile
150 Malta 0.5806 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 25.1% volatile
151 Kyrgyzstan 0.4887 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 3.9% volatile
152 Finland 0.455 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 43.0% volatile
153 Azerbaijan 0.3271 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 7.8% volatile
154 Uzbekistan 0.3082 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 14.5% falling
155 Turkmenistan 0.2778 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 9.4% volatile
156 Japan 0.2181 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 up 24.8% rising
157 Samoa 0.2034 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 51.3% volatile
158 Tajikistan 0.1833 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 19.1% volatile
159 North Korea 0.0242 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 down 53.3% volatile
160 Tonga 0 Percentage of population aged 15 years or over 2040 — volatile

Regions and income groups

Aggregates are excluded from the country ranking above so that a region can never outrank a country.

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Africa's Development Dynamics (AfDD) Table 38 - Projected education by country. Statizoid, drawing on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Retrieved 03 October 2026, from https://education.statizoid.com/stat/africa-s-development-dynamics-afdd-table-38-projected-education-profiles-population-with/

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About this data

Indicator
Africa's Development Dynamics (AfDD) Table 38 - Projected education profiles — Population with less than primary education (medium scenario)
Unit
Percentage of population aged 15 years or over
Source
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Licence
OECD Terms and Conditions (attribution required)
Coverage
235 places, 7,228 data points, 2000–2040
Last refreshed

The Statistical Annex to the annual Africa's Development Dynamics (AFDD) report is a collection of development indicators that were gathered and analysed while conducting the research that went into the report. These data are also available online for free viewing or download at https://oe.cd/AFDD-2024, a bilingual website which links to the electronic version of the Africa's Development Dynamics book in both English and French. Table 38 shows the projected population in 2040 with different education levels, according to the medium and accelerated scenario as calculated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital in 2018.